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US leading index suggests rapid growth pace may have peaked

November 21, 2018

The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index edged up only 0.1% in October from September to a reading of 112.1 (2016 = 100), following 0.6% increase in September, and a 0.5% increase in August.

“The US [Leading Economic Index] increased slightly in October, and the pace of improvement slowed for the first time since May,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of economic research and global research chair at The Conference Board. “The index still points to robust economic growth in early 2019, but the rapid pace of growth may already have peaked. While near term economic growth should remain strong, longer term growth is likely to moderate to about 2.5% by mid to late 2019.”

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