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US Leading Economic Index falls for first time since December; growth remains slow in second half

July 18, 2019

For the first time since December, The Conference Board reported its US Leading Economic Index fell in June, portending slow growth for the second half of this year.

“The US [Leading Economic Index] fell in June, the first decline since last December, primarily driven by weaknesses in new orders for manufacturing, housing permits and unemployment insurance claims,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at The Conference Board. “For the first time since late 2007, the yield spread made a small negative contribution. As the US economy enters its 11th year of expansion, the longest in US history, the [Leading Economic Index] suggests growth is likely to remain slow in the second half of the year.”

June’s index reading fell 0.3% to 111.5 (2016=100) following no change in May and a 0.1% increase in April.

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