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Economists push out recession forecasts, but split on whether it will be in 2020 or 2021

August 19, 2019

A majority of economists believe there will be a US recession in either 2020 or 2021, but they are split on which year it will hit, according to the “2019 NABE Economic Policy Survey.” The survey was released today by the National Association of Business Economics, a professional association for business economists.

“Survey respondents indicate that the expansion will be extended by the shift in monetary policy, and most expect the next economic recession will occur later than anticipated when the February Policy Survey was conducted,” said NABE President Constance Hunter, chief economist AT KPMG. “Of the 98% of respondents who believe a recession will come after 2019, the panel is split regarding whether the downturn will hit in 2020 or 2021.”

The survey results released today found 38% believed there would be a recession in 2020, and 34% believed a recession would take place in 2021. Compared to a similar survey released in February, fewer economists believe there will be a recession in 2020, but more believe there will be a recession in 2021.

In the February survey, 42% believed a recession would take place in 2020, higher than the 38% in today’s announcement. And 25% forecast a recession in 2021, lower than the 34% that picked that year for a recession in today’s results.

In today’s survey, only 14% forecast a recession later than 2021, and just 2% said a recession would happen this year. Twelve percent didn’t know or had no opinion.

NABE’s survey results released today included responses from 226 of its members.

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