Daily News

View All News

Economists lower forecasts for US growth: Survey of Professional Forecasters

August 09, 2019

The outlook for US economic growth over the next three quarters looks slightly weaker now than it did three months ago, according to the new Survey of Professional Forecasters released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Forecast growth in real GDP was revised downward in today’s report from last quarter’s survey. Forecasters now expect real GDP to grow at 1.8% in this quarter, down from the previous forecast of 2.1%.

Real GDP growth for the full-year 2019 was revised down to 2.3% from 2.6%.

In terms of jobs added, the forecasters reduced their estimates for this year and next.

However, the forecasters did not change unemployment rate estimates for this and the next two quarters.

The report surveyed 35 economists for their thoughts.

Median forecasts for selectd variables in current and previous surveys
  Real GDP (%) Unemployment rate (%) Payrolls (000s/month)
  Previous New Previous New Previous New
Quarterly data:            
2019: Q3 2.1 1.8 3.6 3.6 164.7 150.6
2019: Q4 2.2 2.0 3.6 3.6 154.9 148.1
2020: Q1 2.0 1.9 3.6 3.6 133.3 137.6
2020: Q2 1.7 2.0 3.6 3.6 154.2 145.8
2020: Q3 NA 2.0 NA 3.7 NA 108.3
Annual data (projections are based on annual-average levels):    
2019 2.6 2.3 3.7 3.7 200.1 190.6
2020 2.0 1.9 3.6 3.6 142.3 141.2
2021 1.9 2.0 3.7 3.9 NA NA
2022 2.3 2.1 3.9 4.0 NA NA

Comments

Add New Comment

Post comment

NOTE: Links will not be clickable.